From numbers to destiny: Casablanca's alarm

There is one figure that should keep all African oil decision-makers on their toes: 8.1%, or $41 billion, out of a total of $503 billion . This is Africa's share of global exploration and production investments in 2026, according to data presented at the 4th Casablanca Oil Days. Just eight percent, for a continent that holds 7.2% of the world's reserves , nearly ten times more oil than Europe . The imbalance is striking, and it reveals something essential about the state of the relationship between global capital and Africa's potential. This situation clearly indicates that Africa, despite its enormous potential, is no longer attracting investors.

It's not geology that's lacking. It's the conditions. When making their choices, oil investors no longer base their decisions solely on the quality of the subsoil. They scrutinize what experts gathered in Casablanca called the "strategic compasses" : the quality of the petroleum code, the reliability of dispute resolution mechanisms, the fluidity of exchange regulations, the availability of geoscientific data, the local content ecosystem, and the country's stance on the energy transition.

It is from these six perspectives that I experienced these Oil Days: both as an Oil and Gas Resources Manager and as a public law researcher. And it is from this dual position that I wish to convey to the readers of Le Soleil the urgent needs and hopes that Casablanca 2026 has presented.

"Abundant reserves are no longer sufficient to guarantee investor attractiveness. The deployment of oil capital now depends primarily on the quality of the institutional environment in each country." (JP2026 Summary)

I. Reforms and governance: the petroleum code, a social contract between the State and the industry

The first lesson from Casablanca is also the most fundamental: a petroleum code is not a technical document. It is a political act . It reflects what the state wants from its resource and what it is prepared to offer to obtain it. Work on reform and governance has identified three inseparable pillars: legal certainty, institutional governance, and sustainable development.

For investors, four parameters stand out as critical: legal predictability , reliable economic modeling , operational efficiency , and proactive conflict resolution . These four requirements define the profile of the ideal country: one that knows what it wants, states it clearly, and has credible mechanisms in place to enforce its commitments.

Senegal addressed this requirement with its 2019 Petroleum Code (Law No. 2019-03). Article 72 allows for the inclusion of a stabilization clause in production sharing contracts (PSCs), protecting investors against any legislative changes that would disrupt the initial economic balance. Article 71 establishes a comprehensive range of dispute resolution mechanisms: consultation, mediation, conciliation, and international arbitration, in accordance with best African standards (ICSID, CCJA, ICC).

But the Woodside Energy v. Senegal case (ICSID, 2023) served as a stark reminder of an unpleasant truth: a well-crafted text can become a trap if its administrative application is inconsistent. The first line of defense against costly arbitration is preventative dialogue. A sector-specific tax ruling mechanism , giving operators a legally binding position from the DGID (General Directorate of Taxes and Domains) before any sensitive transaction, would be more effective than any contractual clause. The reforms to be considered also include easing exchange control regulations for the repatriation of dividends and the repayment of loans related to oil operations, while maintaining strict rules for settling payments to foreign suppliers where local content is available and competitive.

II. Geoscientific data: a sovereign strategic asset

There's one question that sums up the entire issue of attractiveness in the pre-production phase: what if our country were the next Guyana? Guyana drilled 37 dry wells before improved seismic data transformed its basin from an "unknown" resource into one of the most sought-after in the world. By 2027, it will produce nearly 1.7 million barrels per day . The difference between before and after isn't the geology: that already existed. It's the quality of the data.

The Casablanca 2026 conference was very clear on this point: 70% of local content data in Africa is not digitized (EITI 2023). And without data, there is no investment . Geoscientific data (seismic, petrophysical, well logging, dynamic production data) is not just a matter for geologists and engineers. It is a strategic priority and a question of national sovereignty .

The proposed roadmap is demanding but clear. To maximize the likelihood of success, it is imperative to invest in "data" to enhance attractiveness, hence the need to:

• In the short term: national data audit , legal mandate of a National Data Centre (NDC), definition of transmission obligations by operators.

• In the medium term: multi-client seismic acquisitions , digital data rooms for tenders, OSDU standards.

• Long term: 3D coverage of the entire sedimentary basin, integration of real-time production data, NDT generating revenue through the sale of access licenses.

For Senegal , the process is underway: PETROSEN is planning a $100 million onshore 3D acquisition in 2026. Article 68 of the 2019 Petroleum Code governs the confidentiality of data transmitted by operators and its gradual release. However, explicit legislation on data sovereignty is still needed, drawing inspiration from Nigeria's Petroleum Industry Act 2021. The DGID (General Directorate of Taxes and Domains) also needs to be equipped with digital tools for real-time monitoring of declared production. The data used to attract investors must also be used to monitor operators.

 

Excellence according to Casablanca 2026: a national development center (NDC) as a sovereign commercial asset, 3D coverage across the entire basin, digitally accessible data worldwide, AI integration, and advanced workflows. Senegal is ranked at level 3 ("developing") on this 5-level scale, alongside Angola and Côte d'Ivoire.

 

III. Tax attractiveness and economic profitability: Senegal as a model in development

The Casablanca summary is unambiguous: "Tax attractiveness and economic profitability are not opposed. They are even complementary, provided they are viewed holistically within an integrated process." Three strategic axes were proposed: managing tax risk, balanced incentive policies, and shortening return-on-investment cycles.

On this subject, the 2019 Senegalese Petroleum Code provided a structured response. Article 34 organizes production sharing in two stages: cost oil (reimbursement of investments, capped at 70% for ultra-deep offshore projects) and then profit oil, shared between the State and the contractor according to an R-factor , defined as the ratio between cumulative revenues and cumulative investments. The progressive nature of this factor guarantees the State between 40% and 60% of the oil profit, depending on the project's actual profitability. This is intelligent taxation: the more profitable the project, the more the State benefits, without penalizing the investor during the risk phase.

The tax reform introduced by the 2025 General Tax Code (CGI 2025), within the framework of implementing Senegal's new public policy framework, namely the National Transformation Agenda 2050, adds a crucial layer. The explanatory memorandum, specifically regarding the broadening of the tax base, advocates extending VAT withholding to holders of hydrocarbon mining titles to better secure indirect revenue. The introduction of a tax on significant digital presence closes a loophole for tax avoidance related to management fees and software licenses transferred abroad. The rationalization of tax expenditures subjects each exemption to a rigorous cost-benefit analysis. And the target tax burden is to increase from the current 18% to the 20% required by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), an objective that is part of a broader project: financing Senegal 2050 with endogenous resources, of which oil revenues are a key component.

The system's major vulnerability remains the taxation of compensation paid to foreign operators : management fees, technology royalties, and intra-group interest. In the absence of mandatory transfer pricing documentation, the corporate income tax base can be silently eroded. This is precisely the subject of my doctoral research, and the reason why I advocate for a sector-specific circular from the Directorate General of Taxes (DGID) and the integration of BEPS standards actions 8, 10, and 13 into Senegalese tax legislation.

IV. Local Content: Oil money must stay in Africa

The figure is staggering, and it needs to be said openly: out of a typical annual budget of $350 million for oil operations , only $52 million is captured by local service providers, or 15% . The remaining $298 million goes directly to foreign suppliers and service providers (AfDB/EITI aggregated data 2022-2024 presented in Casablanca). This is the most concrete and painful illustration of the failure of the current model.

And yet, the Casablanca debates overturned a common misconception: local content is not the enemy of attractiveness. It complements it. Nigeria , with a local content rate of 56% in 2024 (compared to 20% in 2016), attracted three-quarters of the world's major final investment decisions (FIDs) that year, amounting to $13.5 billion (Wood Mackenzie/AEC, 2025). A well-integrated local provider reduces mobilization and logistics costs by 15 to 30% in the medium term. Local content is not a burden; it is an investment in competitiveness.

For Senegal , Article 58 of the 2019 Code sets the framework: preference for Senegalese companies, priority employment of national staff, technology transfer, and mandatory training. Article 48 adds mandatory social expenditures. However, these written obligations must be translated into quantified, audited, and annually published obligations. The multi-stakeholder governance advocated by Casablanca requires a three-pronged commitment: the regulatory state, operators maximizing local procurement, and local actors building the ecosystem. This model requires a national entity to monitor local content , which is currently absent from the Senegalese institutional framework.

Digitalization plays a crucial role here. What isn't measured doesn't improve. Only 12% of oil service projects in Africa are financed locally (World Bank, 2023). The goal of reaching 30% by 2030, before any recourse to foreign investment, requires a single national platform, a digital register of qualified service providers, and 12 standardized KPIs (Finance, HR, Marketing and Sales, Quality) that can be audited in real time. A local entrepreneur today spends an average of 312 hours per year on administrative procedures, compared to 48 hours in Europe (Doing Business 2023). This asymmetry represents a missed opportunity for local content.

 

V. Developing gas resources: Senegal's great opportunity

The discovery of the Grand Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) deposits , shared between Senegal and Mauritania, places our country at the forefront of a question that the whole of Africa must solve: how to value natural gas as a lever for development, without making it a factor of dependence, and by linking it with the imperatives of energy transition?

Casablanca 2026 proposed a three-pronged response.

• Legal security first : aligning the legal framework for hydrocarbon exploitation with international environmental standards, to avoid project blockages linked to the climate content of financiers, a trend already observed in Brazilian and Guyanese codes, which have been incorporating green arbitration (ESG) clauses since 2025.

• Diversification of gas outlets next: Beyond LNG exports, the development of Senegalese natural gas requires a multi-faceted outlet strategy: supplying the West African regional market, providing for national electricity production and substituting for polluting fossil fuels, particularly coal and heavy fuel oil, in the industrial sector.

• Finally, the infrastructure offer : it is based on the gasification of the Senegalese industrial fabric as a lever for economic competitiveness.

 

Article 59 of the 2019 Petroleum Code mandates that licensees prioritize their production to meet domestic demand. This provision, often overlooked in analyses, is actually a powerful lever for increasing domestic value of gas, provided that distribution infrastructure and consuming industries are ready.

 

VI. Hydrocarbons and the energy transition: Africa's right not to choose

This is perhaps the most emotionally and politically charged topic of Casablanca 2026. Too often presented as opposing forces, hydrocarbons and the energy transition must be approached from a comprehensive and integrated perspective, "in order to position them as drivers of attractiveness ," according to the conference summary itself. This seemingly innocuous formulation reflects an explicit political stance: Africa's rejection of a binary logic of mutual exclusion between development and energy transition.

This position is economically sound. Northern countries financed their industrialization with fossil fuels for a century. It would be profoundly unjust to prevent Africa from doing the same, in the name of a climate emergency of which it is the first victim and the last responsible party. Natural gas plays a pivotal role here: with lower emissions than coal and fuel oil, it can serve as a "transition fuel," allowing countries like Senegal to provide universal access to electricity while reducing the carbon footprint of their energy mix.

But the Casablanca 2026 Oil Days also conveyed something important: the transition is a reality to be acknowledged , not denied. International financiers are making it a condition. Markets are valuing it. Institutional investors are integrating it into their ESG criteria. Aligning the legal framework for operations with environmental standards, implementing dedicated mechanisms to facilitate a smooth energy transition, and positioning ourselves as active participants (not spectators): this is the strategy to adopt.

 

For Senegal , Article 5 of the 2019 Code serves as a guiding principle: oil revenues must guarantee "intergenerational savings." In other words, exploiting today's oil to finance tomorrow's renewable energy. This is the only way to transform extractive rents into a sustainable resource.

Conclusion: Let's take responsibility for changing Africa

The final slide of the Casablanca 2026 summary contains a four-word appeal: "Let's take responsibility for changing Africa ." These four words encapsulate the meaning of these four days of work better than any analysis.

 

Attractiveness is not an abstract concept. It is the sum of concrete decisions: legislating on data sovereignty, creating a functional single oil window in less than 15 days, including quantified local content targets in each CPP, equipping the DGID with a unit specializing in oil tax control, setting up a sectoral tax ruling mechanism, and publishing local content performance data quarterly.

 

Senegal is experiencing something rare in a country's history: the simultaneous transition from being a promising producer to a major one. This transition has occurred without any major institutional disruption, thanks to a robust 2019 Petroleum Code and a reformed General Tax Code scheduled for 2025. The foundations are in place. What remains to be built is the infrastructure: a specialized tax administration, a digital platform for monitoring local content, a national geoscientific data center, and, above all, an institutional culture of predictability and consistency .

 

The overall conclusion of the Casablanca Petroleum Days 2026 rests on four pillars : vision and political will; strategy adapted to the maturity level of the sedimentary basin with a clear institutional framework, structured and controlled data, thoughtful taxation, strengthened skills, robust contracts and chosen partners; pooling of skills; and finally, action.

 

That last word, action , is perhaps the most important. Africa has already held enough conferences about its oil. What it needs now are trained civil servants, robust institutions, digested data, and implemented policies. In Casablanca, for four days, we mapped out the path. The journey to prosperity remains.

 

"To evade the obligation to reform is to move towards decline in the new global oil landscape." (Conclusion of the 2026 Oil Days)

 

A joint perspective from a PhD student in Public Law - Oil & Gas Resource Manager on the six structuring themes of the 2026 Oil Days

Mr. Oumar BA

PhD Candidate in Public Law / Oil & Gas Resource Manager