Magal 2025 : les 6,5 millions de pèlerins ne sont pas une illusion (Dr. Balla KHOUMA)
Dear Mr. Aliou Diouf,
Allow me to send you, as a data scientist, a response based on the principles of scientific rigor and transparency, following your article published yesterday on Seneweb, in which you question the figures announced for the Magal of Touba 2025, in particular the 6.5 million pilgrims.
Scientific ethics invites us to first return to the source of the data before challenging its validity. In this case, the official Magal website provides clear information on the methodology adopted by the Culture and Communication Commission. The Commission implemented a structured approach, supported by the following points:
Based on this system, the Commission recorded 235,919 vehicles (excluding two-wheelers and carts) and 5.1 million passengers. This figure is in addition to the resident population of the Mbacké department, estimated at 1.4 million according to ANSD projections.
Should we conclude that these figures are implausible simply because they exceed, by more than 3.6 times, the number of pilgrims recorded for Hajj 2024? Nothing could be less certain. This comparison, although tempting, deserves to be approached with caution and nuance, for at least two essential reasons:
As a statistician, I am well aware that any mass estimate is subject to bias, regardless of the country or technological level. This is not a Senegalese specificity, but a universal reality. Even in large cities with sophisticated counting infrastructures, attendance figures for major events often remain subject to debate. However, a few factors of potential overestimation must be taken into account:
Despite these limitations, the effort at transparency, the methodology deployed, and the scale observed on the ground deserve to be taken seriously. Instead of dismissing these figures out of hand, they invite a constructive methodological debate, commensurate with the challenge represented by the Magal of Touba, both spiritually and sociologically.
With respectful greetings,
Dr. Balla KHOUMA
Data Scientist
Commentaires (20)
S'il n y avait pas la bouffe pensez-vous que le chiffre atteindrait 1000.000 ? Sans compter les multiples invités qui sont affiliés dans les autres tariqas. Bayilene thiakhane ak poukeré
Le magal y’a rien de spirituel l’argent collecté au magal devrait suffire pour assainir cette ville et payer les charges d’eau et d’électricité mais il en est rien
Le jeune, fatigué, va se reposer, prendre du thé, et remplir ses fiches au hasard, avec des doigts un peu lourds,
n'ayant aucun sens des grandeurs. D'autres, fervents, pensent innocemment, que plus ils en mettent, mieux c'est. Ils pensent que c'est un match.
With all due respect, this is the dummest thing a scientiest would say!
What kind of statistical sampling method are you referring to?
Puisque vous ne nous donnez pas votre formule, prennons juste en compte les vehicules comme facteur. Vous pouvez auusi y ajouter les charettes,
Si en moyenne chaue vehicule transporte 10 passagers (et je suis genereux), les 248 000 vehicules rentrants representent un total de 2,480 000 d'invidus a un moment T qui est le moment culminant du pelerinage avec record d'affluence. Ajouter a la population vivant a temps reel a Touba. Je ne parle meme pas des visiteurs venant a pied, pour le Magal
Comment et par quel tour de abracadabra formulaire parvenez vous a justifier un nombre de 6,000,000 de pelerins?
J'ai rien contre Touba ou l'expansion du Mouridisme, bien au contrarire,
Il me semble que les chiffres avances sont juste une maniere de dire que le Mourisine est tres populaire a travers le monde.
Faut commencer a la "they Serigne Touba", pour se moquer des Tidianes et autres,
C'est injuste et cree la division.
Get your fact straight, Dr. Dieng!
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