Hydrocarbon exploitation opens a new chapter in a country's trajectory. Revenues generated by oil and gas can transform budgetary balances, finance long-delayed infrastructure, and accelerate economic modernization. But recent history shows that this windfall can just as easily disrupt priorities if it is not integrated into a coherent strategy.

Senegal is entering precisely this phase. With the start of production at the Sangomar oil field in 2024 and the gradual commissioning of the Grand Tortue Ahmeyim gas project on the Mauritanian border, the country is becoming a commercial-scale hydrocarbon producer. Official projections suggest that, once the projects reach maturity, annual public revenues could potentially reach several hundred billion CFA francs, depending on the volumes extracted and international prices, although a consolidated and definitive figure has not yet been established.

This prospect is fueling high expectations. Oil revenues could help reduce the budget deficit, finance major infrastructure projects, and support the economic transformation trajectory. However, these revenues remain dependent on the volatility of global markets. A drop in oil or gas prices can quickly erode budgetary resources, as several producing countries have experienced.

The risk is twofold. On the one hand, excessive dependence on hydrocarbons can divert attention from necessary structural reforms in agriculture, industry, and services. On the other hand, a massive influx of foreign currency can strengthen the currency in real terms and weaken non-extractive export sectors. This mechanism, often referred to as the "Dutch disease," has hampered the economic diversification of many resource-rich countries.

Senegal has attempted to anticipate these pitfalls. A specific legal framework governs the management of oil revenues, with the creation of an intergenerational fund and a stabilization fund designed to smooth revenue flows and preserve a share for future generations. The challenge will be to ensure the effectiveness of these mechanisms within a budgetary context marked by a level of debt deemed high by international institutions and by significant social needs.

International experience suggests that success depends less on the volume of revenue than on its allocation. Investing in human capital, productive infrastructure, and industrial diversification can transform temporary windfall gains into sustainable growth. Conversely, prioritizing the use of revenue for current expenditures or low-profit projects can exacerbate imbalances.

Senegal's challenge, therefore, does not lie solely in the production of barrels or cubic meters of gas. It lies in the ability to integrate these new resources into a credible budgetary framework and a development strategy geared towards value creation beyond the extractive sector. Oil revenues can become a lever for transformation. They can also exacerbate existing vulnerabilities if they replace reforms rather than funding them.