The National Rally on the rise, LFI making a breakthrough: the two parties, which used the municipal elections as a test ahead of the presidential election, emerged strengthened from the first round on Sunday, in a vote which generally saw the left maintain its position, particularly in Paris, Marseille and Lyon.

The period between the two rounds of voting, up until next Sunday, will be marked by the puzzle of possible alliances, which will also be scrutinized in light of the race for the Elysée Palace, currently dominated by the far right in the polls, in a very fragmented political landscape.

In France's three largest cities, the outgoing left is doing well: the socialist Emmanuel Grégoire is well ahead of the former right-wing minister Rachida Dati in the capital, the mayor close to the Socialist Party Benoît Payan is in the lead, although closely followed by the National Rally MP Franck Allisio in Marseille, and the ecologist Grégory Doucet, also an incumbent, is neck and neck with the former boss of Olympique Lyonnais Jean-Michel Aulas, supported by the center and the right, after an impressive "comeback".

Elsewhere, the National Rally is establishing itself in the municipal landscape, its objective one year before the supreme election. The far-right party won several strongholds in the first round, in Hénin-Beaumont (Pas-de-Calais) and Fréjus (Var), as well as some new towns like Cagnes-sur-Mer (Alpes-Maritimes).

In Toulon, RN MP Laure Lavalette is far ahead but with few reserves of votes.

- "Anti-fascist" fusion -

The president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, "extended a hand to the lists of sincere right-wing parties" to win, while Marine Le Pen predicted "real chances of victory" in the second round on March 22.

But beyond the Le Pen party, it is La France Insoumise that is causing a sensation in several cities. "We were expecting the radical right and we have the radical left," summarizes François Kraus, director of the political division of Ifop.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon hailed a "historic breakthrough", citing Lille, Roubaix, Limoges, Saint-Denis and Toulouse as possible conquests.

In Toulouse, the LFI (France Unbowed) MP François Piquemal even managed to overtake his Socialist rival François Briançon, both of whom trailed far behind the incumbent mayor Jean-Luc Moudenc. In Lille, the La France Insoumise candidate caused a surprise, running neck and neck with the incumbent Socialist mayor Arnaud Deslandes, Martine Aubry's successor.

As for Roubaix, LFI deputy David Guiraud has taken a serious option on the mayoralty with 45% of the votes, which would make it the largest city run by the Mélenchonist party.

But the radical left-wing movement is also in a kingmaker position in several other major cities, notably Paris, where Sophia Chikirou, polling around 13%, has promised to stay in the race unless Emmanuel Grégoire proposes an "anti-fascist" merger. The stances of centrist Pierre-Yves Bournazel and Reconquête candidate Sarah Knafo will also be crucial.

- Difficult negotiations -

This surge in support for both movements, which have turned this campaign into a major test for 2027, suggests difficult negotiations ahead before the deadline for submitting lists for the second round, Tuesday at 6:00 PM. By then, the lead candidates will have to decide whether to maintain their candidacies, merge their lists, or withdraw. A candidate must obtain more than 10% of the vote to advance to the second round.

It is on the left that the question of alliances looks set to be the most thorny.

The Socialist Party, which is holding its ground in many major cities and is also leading by a wide margin in Rennes, Strasbourg, and Montpellier, wants to break definitively with La France Insoumise (LFI). But the strong showing of LFI complicates the equation in several elections.

LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard has "extended a hand" to other left-wing lists "wherever the right and far right pose a threat." But on the other side, Socialist Party (PS) First Secretary Olivier Faure reiterated that there would be "no national agreement" between the two parties, after a campaign in which Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his movement were accused of anti-Semitism and ambiguity on the issue of political violence.

More open to alliances, the Green Party's Marine Tondelier called for "eliminating the right and the far right".

Her party, which was predicted to be in a bad position in its town halls after the "green wave" of 2020, is doing better than expected, in Lyon but also in Poitiers, where the outgoing mayor is in the lead.

- "Large gathering on the right" -

Another key election thirteen months before the presidential election is in Le Havre, where former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe is well-positioned, having made his re-election a prerequisite for continuing his presidential campaign. Another potential candidate for 2027, the communist Fabien Roussel, was re-elected in Saint-Amand-les-Eaux (Nord).

In Nice, the duel between the incumbent Christian Estrosi and Eric Ciotti, an ally of the RN, is turning in favour of the latter, with a lead of around ten points.

As the question of local alliances with the far right arises in several cities, the head of LR Bruno Retailleau, who had to accept the disappointing results of Rachida Dati in Paris and Jean-Michel Aulas in Lyon, called for a "great gathering of the right" to "defeat the left or the RN".

Voter turnout continued to decline on Sunday in an election that traditionally interests the French. Polling institutes predict a turnout of between 56% and 58.5%, compared to 63.55% in 2014, continuing a downward trend observed for over 40 years, particularly among young people and in working-class neighborhoods.

A figure that was only lower in 2020 during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Mobilization may have been hampered by the end of the campaign being overshadowed by the war in the Middle East.