The scenario of a record worsening of global food insecurity in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East is becoming a reality, the UN warned on Friday.

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned in March, two weeks after the US and Israel launched the war against Iran, that nearly 45 million more people could be affected by acute food insecurity if the conflict did not end by June and if the price of a barrel of oil remained above $100.

These people would be in addition to the nearly 320 million who already suffer from acute food insecurity worldwide.

"The negative scenario is unfortunately becoming a reality," Jean-Martin Bauer, the director of the WFP's food security analysis service, told AFP.

"The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is resulting in increased hunger," he added, highlighting the soaring prices of basic foodstuffs such as rice and wheat.

The WFP also warned of "significant contagion effects, including through shocks to fuel and food prices, income losses and trade disruptions", in an analysis note.

"As these factors interact with pre-existing vulnerabilities," there are quickly "visible repercussions on food security and livelihoods," he notes.

"What is looming is the return of a global cost-of-living crisis similar to the one we experienced in 2022," after the start of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Bauer warned.

But in 2022, "humanitarian programs were better funded. Humanitarians were present in places where they are no longer," according to Mr. Bauer.

International aid is also affected by rising costs and logistical difficulties related to the conflict, notes the WFP analysis. "The humanitarian system is caught in a vice: increased needs and rising implementation costs are creating gaps" in response, it states.

Speaking to reporters in Geneva on Friday, Mr. Bauer warned that the WFP was preparing for a "pipeline break" next month, meaning no food would be available for distribution.

"Those who will suffer the consequences of this situation will be very vulnerable children under the age of five," he warned, also stressing that there was already a risk of famine in a region of Somalia.

The organization estimates that it will help 1.5 million fewer people than originally planned in 2026 and warns that if the conflict were to continue for six months, more than nine million people could lose all assistance.