According to a viral TikTok video, France is about to experience "its most violent winter" in forty years. In reality, it's impossible to know for sure at this time.

As the first winter temperatures arrive in France, the country is entering "its most severe winter since 1985." This is the claim made in a video published on Tuesday, November 18, and viewed more than 600,000 times on TikTok. Behind this content is the account "geo_actu," which states in its description that it offers "Live news, 100% free!" According to the voiceover, "wind chill temperatures of around -10 to -15°C" are expected.

The video also mentions "freezing winds" and "a massive snowfall, even in regions where it almost never snows." A "preliminary emergency plan" for this cold snap has reportedly already been "launched" by "the government." This plan would include, among other things, "travel restrictions" and the "preparation of heated shelters for the homeless." "France could experience a winter the likes of which we haven't seen in decades," the video concludes.

@geo_actu 2025 The most violent winter in France? #winter #france #winter2025 ♬ original sound - Actu_Intermonde

FAKE OFF

France is experiencing its "first week of winter," writes Météo-France on its website. The cause is "the arrival of a polar air mass," linked to a "low-pressure system" moving "down from the North Sea" over the country. A few snowflakes are expected in several lowland areas, including the Île-de-France region.

However, "it is not possible to predict whether the winter will be particularly cold," the meteorological service told 20 Minutes. As a reminder, Météo-France produces a monthly "average trend bulletin for the next three months." The latest bulletin indicates the trends, in other words, "the most likely scenario" between "near, below, and above normal," for the period from "November 2025 to January 2026."

“Climate trends are not weather forecasts,” warns Météo-France. Therefore, they “do not provide information on the possibility of exceeding unprecedented values in the coming season.”

A recurring phenomenon

Currently, "in terms of temperatures, a warmer-than-normal scenario is the most likely for France." However, "occasional cooler spells," such as "the one we're experiencing this week," are "not ruled out."

While admittedly "less frequent" due to "climate change," these episodes—distinct from "cold waves"—are recurrent "at this time of year," notes Météo-France. For example, in "November 2010," temperatures of "-15°C in Orléans," "-9°C in Colmar," and "-6°C in Caen" were recorded. These are far from the main cold records in France.

Several cold waves since 1985

The winter of 1985, mentioned in the video, refers to the cold snap that hit France in January 1985. More precisely, it lasted from January 3rd to 17th, or for "two long weeks," according to an article published on the Météo-France website ten years ago. The second coldest day ever recorded in France was even observed during this cold snap: January 16th, 1985. On that day, the average temperature across the country was -9.9°C.

More recently, France experienced a cold snap in 2012, from February 1st to 13th. As for the more brief cold spells, the last one recorded was in February 2018.