According to a survey in nine EU countries, 51% of Europeans consider the risk that "Russia could go to war with your country in the coming years" to be "high" or "very high".

Many Europeans consider the risk of war with Russia to be high, according to a survey conducted in nine EU countries and published Thursday by the French magazine Le Grand Continent.

The question posed at the end of November by Cluster 17 was: "In your opinion, could Russia go to war with your country in the coming years?" More than half (51%) of respondents judged that there was a "high" or "very high" risk to this question.

The perceived risk of open conflict varies from country to country. In Poland, which borders Russia and its Belarusian ally, 77% of respondents consider this risk to be high or very high. The figures are 54% in France and 51% in Germany. In contrast to the Polish, 65% of Italian respondents consider the risk to be low or nonexistent.

Greater fear of terrorism

The results of this study also show that a large majority (81%) have little or no belief in a war with China in the coming years. "Russia therefore represents, by far, the most significant threat of state war in European public opinion," analyzes Le Grand Continent, a geopolitical publication affiliated with the French École Normale Supérieure.

"While Russia is the major state threat, terrorism is the most immediate threat in European public opinion. Across the nine countries covered by the survey, 63% of respondents consider the risk of open war with terrorist organizations to be high (or very high)," according to the Grand Continent.

Doubts about the military capabilities of European countries

Respondents doubt their own country's military capabilities against Moscow. More than two-thirds (69%) believe their country would be "not at all" or "rather not" capable of defending itself against Russian aggression. In France, the only nuclear-armed state on the list, respondents are the least pessimistic, with 44% believing their country is "quite" or "rather" capable of defending itself. At the other end of the spectrum are the Belgians, Italians, and Portuguese, who overwhelmingly believe their countries are incapable of defending themselves (87%, 85%, and 85%, respectively).

The survey covers a whole range of topics, showing for example that 55% of respondents believe that Europe should have a balanced position between the two major global geopolitical rivals, the United States and China, or that nearly one in two (48%) consider Donald Trump "an enemy of Europe", again with large disparities.

The majority of Europeans view immigration as a "threat to national cohesion," a sentiment stronger in the north and east of the continent than in the south. They also favor reducing public spending and the number of civil servants.