India is following the escalating violence in Bangladesh with concern. The lynching of a Hindu man accused of blasphemy has reignited communal and diplomatic tensions with New Delhi. This tragedy adds to a series of incidents targeting minorities and raises fears of a lasting deterioration in the domestic climate in this neighboring country. A neighbor of nearly 170 million inhabitants, with whom India is deeply linked by history, but also by geopolitical and security considerations.

A series of incidents targeting minorities in Bangladesh has raised fears of a lasting deterioration in the country's domestic climate. Here, security forces are seen at the funeral of a prominent student opposition figure in Dhaka, December 20, 2025.

In the newsroom of the United News of India agency in New Delhi, some forty journalists follow the news around the clock. In recent days, one country has been the focus of all attention: Bangladesh, which has become the most sensitive issue of the moment.

According to editor-in-chief Jayanta Roy Chowdhury, this interest stems from both historical and emotional reasons, inherited from the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War against Pakistan. A pivotal event that remains very much alive in Indian collective memory.

"At the time, nearly ten million Bangladeshi refugees were living in India. They needed to be fed, housed, and cared for. Ordinary citizens raised money, and that memory is still very much alive," he recalls.

India fears a realignment of Bangladesh with China and Pakistan

During this conflict, New Delhi supported the Bangladeshi independence movement and, at the cost of a considerable national effort, welcomed nearly ten million refugees. More than half a century later, this past continues to influence India's view of its eastern neighbor.

But the situation has changed. After last year's student revolt, the flight of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to India and the arrival of an interim government in Dhaka, New Delhi now fears a possible realignment of Bangladesh towards China and Pakistan.

This regional development is being closely monitored by Smruti Pattanaik, a researcher at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, a strategic research center based in New Delhi. According to her, "if Bangladesh remains unstable, the repercussions for India will be considerable."

The two countries share more than 4,000 kilometers of borders, often porous, where human and economic flows are constant.

Enabling stability in Bangladesh on the eve of the upcoming elections

Beyond diplomacy, India's main concern is now security. Any prolonged instability in Bangladesh could, according to experts, fuel extremism and lead to cross-border violence.

In this context, New Delhi hopes that the return, however controversial, of Tariq Rahman to the Bangladeshi political scene will help ensure the stability deemed necessary after the elections scheduled for next February. A central figure in the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the party's interim chairman, and long-time exile in London, Tariq Rahman returned to the country in December 2025, after a 17-year absence.

India is now waiting for a political interlocutor capable of restoring calm and preserving a neighborhood that has become strategic, both historically, geopolitically and in terms of security.