Nobel de la paix: sans doute pas Trump, mais alors qui?
Just before D-Day, there's only one thing that's almost certain: Donald Trump will not win the Nobel Peace Prize he so desperately covets this year. But what name will the Norwegian Nobel Committee pull out of its hat?
The Nobel Prize will be awarded on Friday at 11:00 a.m. (09:00 GMT) in Oslo against a somber backdrop: since these statistics began in 1946, the number of armed conflicts involving at least one state has never been as high as in 2024, according to Sweden's Uppsala University.
One thing seems certain: While he claims to deserve the award for his role in resolving eight conflicts, Donald Trump won't get it, at least not this time, according to observers.
"No, it won't be Trump this year," Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, a specialist in international affairs, told AFP.
"But maybe next year? By then, the dust will have settled around his various initiatives, particularly on the Gaza crisis," he adds.
Many experts consider the American president's claim to be a "peacemaker" to be greatly exaggerated and are concerned about the repercussions of his "America First" line.
"Beyond his attempts at mediation on Gaza, we see policies that run counter to the intentions and principles set out in Nobel's will," namely international cooperation, brotherhood among peoples, and disarmament, notes Nina Graeger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
Withdrawal from international organizations and multilateral treaties, trade wars "including against old friends and allies," coveting Denmark, use of the military in American cities, attacks on academic freedom and freedom of expression...: the list of grievances is long.
"We look at the whole picture," says Jørgen Watne Frydnes, chairman of the five-member committee that awards the Nobel Peace Prize.
"It's the organization or the personality as a whole that matters. But what we look at above all is what they have actually accomplished in the service of peace," he says.
This year, 338 individuals and organizations were nominated for the Nobel Prize, a list that remains secret for 50 years. Tens of thousands of people (parliamentarians and ministers from all countries, former laureates, some university professors, members of the Nobel Committee, etc.) are eligible to submit a name.
In 2024, the Nobel Prize was awarded to Nihon Hidankyo, a group of survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, who were crusading against nuclear weapons.
In the absence of a clear favorite, several names are circulating in Oslo: the Sudanese volunteer network Emergency Response Units (ERR), the Russian Yulia Navalnaya, widow of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, or the OSCE's election observation arm (ODIHR).
In recent years, the Nobel committee's choices have seen a return to more micro issues, closer to the classic ideas of peace, while still being linked to human rights, democracy, freedom of the press, and women,' says Halvard Leira, a research director at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).
"My intuition would be that this year we are probably heading towards a winner who is not too controversial," he suggests.
The Nobel Committee could also choose to reaffirm its commitment to a world order challenged by Donald Trump, by rewarding the head of the UN, Antonio Guterres, and/or an offshoot of the United Nations such as the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) or the agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA).
It could also distinguish between international justice -- the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or the International Criminal Court (ICC) -- and threatened press freedom by protecting NGOs such as the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) and Reporters Without Borders (RSF).
Or, opt for a total surprise, as he often does.
Commentaires (7)
Tout le Monde sait que Trump ne mérite pas un tel prix. Mais certains veulent faire plaisir à l'homme le plus violent du Monde, complice du génocidaire Nethanyu.
Tout le Monde sait que Trump ne mérite pas un tel prix. Mais certains veulent faire plaisir à l'homme le plus violent du Monde, complice du génocidaire Nethanyu.
Le Nobel à Trump, ce serait insulter le monde.
Quand on sait que ce prix a été donné par le passé à des gens qui sont devenus criminels, ce ne serait finalement pas déconant que Trump l’ait. D’autant plus qu’une partie de ses dires est vraie
là il n'y a pas photos! l'homme aux centaines de VAR , le Gourou de la Secte des Pestiférés (GSP) n'a aucun concurrent
S'ils le donnent à Trump, Alfred Nobel, lui-même, ressusciterait pour le lui retirer ! Et c'en serait fini de la réputation prestigieuse de ce prix.
Plutot le donner au Hamas
Une chose est sûre il ne sera pas attribué à netanyahu !
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