Que signifient les purges à la tête de l’armée chinoise ?
In China, the anti-corruption campaign is targeting the top brass of the military. On Saturday, January 24, the Chinese Ministry of Defense announced that two generals were under investigation for "suspected serious violations of discipline and the law." Among them is the highest-ranking officer in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and a personal friend of Xi Jinping. This unprecedented purge raises numerous questions about the future and operational capabilities of the Chinese military.
A simple one-line press release, published this Saturday, January 24, but a veritable earthquake for an institution with two million personnel. The announcement of the opening of an investigation against Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, two members of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), "is incredible," asserts Alex Payette, CEO of the consulting firm Cercius and a specialist on the Chinese military.
The stated reason – “suspicion of serious violations of discipline and law” – the rumors of possible leaks of military information, as well as the editorial in the army daily published on Sunday, stating that the two men “seriously flouted and undermined the system of ultimate responsibility incumbent upon the chairman of the Central Military Commission” (Editor’s note: Xi Jinping), leave little doubt about their future within a Chinese military apparatus now deprived of leadership.
A comrade-in-arms of Xi Jinping's father
Since 2023, numerous military leaders have fallen victim to purges—some twenty generals, including two defense ministers—as part of a sweeping anti-corruption campaign. But none had the background of General Zhang Youxia.
Aged 75, he was de facto the army's second-in-command, after Xi Jinping, chairman of the Central Military Commission, the body that guarantees the Communist Party's control over the armed forces. The son of a comrade-in-arms of Xi Zhongxun, Xi Jinping's father, he was seen as close to the general secretary, who had reappointed him to his position as first vice-chairman of the CMC despite him having exceeded the statutory age limit.
Zhang Youxia was also one of the few staff officers with significant combat experience, gained during the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War. "He was a man with a certain prestige, a reassuring presence for the troops," analyzes Alex Payette. "A real source of stability to balance internal movements, at a time when purges were multiplying."
The Missile Force, responsible for the ballistic and nuclear program, as well as the Chinese navy, have seen their command drastically reduced in the last two years as a result of an anti-corruption campaign unprecedented since Mao Zedong.
This series of purges aims to "clean up the excesses of corruption or wealth accumulation over the past few decades," asserts Emmanuel Véron, a geographer specializing in contemporary China and affiliated with INALCO and the HEC Geopolitics Center. But it is also being used by Xi Jinping as "an operational tool to eliminate all his rivals," the researcher believes.
"Today, mobilizing the army seems difficult to consider."
This strategy appears to be detrimental to the functioning of the military apparatus, now largely devoid of its leadership. Of the seven members who comprised the Military Command Council (MCC) in June 2024, only two remain: Xi Jinping, the president, and the second vice-president in charge of discipline. And while the expulsion of two more generals from the commission is not yet official, it is virtually certain.
Along with the number two in his army, the Chinese leader also parted ways with Liu Zhenli, chief of the joint staff. The 61-year-old general was in charge of intelligence, operations, and training, "a position that cannot be filled overnight," Alex Payette points out.
"Today, mobilizing the army seems difficult to consider: there are too many gaps to fill. The chain of command is extremely suboptimal."
2027
However, one date is marked on many calendars, particularly in Washington. According to former CIA director William Burns, "Xi Jinping has ordered the People's Liberation Army to be ready to invade Taiwan starting in 2027." This timeline has not been confirmed by Beijing, but it coincides with the PLA's centennial and the Party Congress, during which the General Secretary could seek a fourth term.
But with these purges, Xi Jinping has "effectively weakened the armed forces in the short and medium term," argues Emmanuel Véron. Added to this are the shortcomings inherited from decades of endemic corruption, despite the stated commitment to modernization.
The opacity of the Chinese political system complicates the analysis of the motivations behind this new destabilization of the army, which is nevertheless crucial if the general secretary aspires to realize his dream of "reunification", namely the conquest of Taiwan.
Some suggest the possibility of excessive influence. "Zhang Youxia had been known for two or three years to wield considerable political power," notes Emmanuel Véron, who emphasizes the demand for total loyalty imposed by Xi Jinping. The approach of the 21st Party Congress is undoubtedly a factor in this sudden purge, suggests Alex Payette.
"If you start from scratch by appointing younger cadres who owe everything to Xi Jinping, you secure lasting support beyond 2027. Because, sooner or later, he will have to leave, and for that reason, it is better to maintain some form of control over the People's Liberation Army."
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