Morocco, the host country, and Senegal, the two favorites for the 2025 AFCON, must secure their qualification for the round of 16, while Egypt and Nigeria, already qualified, will be able to rotate their squad during the third and final day of the group stage which begins on Monday.

Algeria, who won (1-0) against Burkina Faso on Sunday, joined the Pharaohs and the Super Eagles among the teams qualified from the second day, assured of finishing first in their group.

Ivory Coast, the defending champions, and Cameroon, struggling to find their footing, played to a 1-1 draw on Sunday evening. But their stalemate claimed a victim: Gabon, the first team eliminated after their 3-2 defeat to Mozambique.

At the end of the group stage on Wednesday, the four best third-placed teams from the six groups will also advance to the round of 16, which leaves a significant gap for the favorites who had a poor start.

Thus, despite one victory and two crushing defeats in 2023, Ivory Coast qualified in extremis for the final phase as the fourth best third-placed team, ultimately winning at home by gaining momentum during the knockout matches.

Morocco in a very favorable position

Thanks to its opening victory against Comoros 2-0, then its draw against Mali 1-1, Morocco, the competition's overwhelming favorite, only needs another draw against Zambia on Monday to finish first in its group, provided that Mali does not win by more than two goals against Comoros.

Even a defeat wouldn't prevent the Atlas Lions from securing first place in their group if Mali and Comoros were to draw. But everyone in the Kingdom is expecting a victory from Walid Regragui's men. The coach is under immense pressure, which has intensified after his team's shaky start, and whose salvation lies in a final victory in Rabat on January 18th.

To calm the rising rebellion, Regragui, who does not deviate from his ideas and choices, will finally launch Achraf Hakimi, his captain, injured since November 4 and "ready to play", but who was preserved during the first two matches.

Senegal less serene

Although the Lions of Teranga impressed in their opening victory against Botswana (3-0), they had to fight to secure a draw (1-1) against the Democratic Republic of Congo, with whom they share the top spot in Group D with four points.

Senegal must now beat Benin on Tuesday in Tangier and hope for a slip-up from DR Congo against Botswana to secure first place in the group. However, thanks to their three goals in the first match, they hold a slight advantage on goal difference, the second tiebreaker after head-to-head results.

In Group D, second place is the least enviable since it means crossing swords in the round of 16 with the winner of Group E, Algeria.

Peaceful Egypt and Nigeria

Egypt, led by Mohamed Salah, struggled, and Nigeria, led by Victor Osimhen, who had a scare at the end of the match against Tunisia (3-2), can look forward to the future: these two teams have already qualified and are guaranteed to finish first in their group, after two wins in two matches, combined with the draw of their last respective opponent, Angola for Egypt and Uganda for Nigeria.

Hossam Hassan, the coach of the Pharaohs, and Eric Chelle, the coach of the Super Eagles, will therefore be able to rotate their squad while waiting to find out the identity of their opponent in the round of 16, a third-placed team in both cases.

South Africa, unlucky with the refereeing against Egypt (1-0) and Tunisia, who woke up too late against Nigeria, have nevertheless not jeopardized their chances thanks to their victory in their first match.

Likely to finish second in their respective groups, B and C, they will face another second-place team from another group: Cameroon and Ivory Coast for Bafana Bafana, and Morocco and Mali for the Eagles of Carthage.

Algeria returns

Algeria (Group E) will return to the knockout stage for the first time since 2019 after a hard-fought victory over Burkina Faso, thanks to a third goal from their captain Riyad Mahrez. They face Equatorial Guinea on Wednesday, who lost to Sudan (1-0) and are bottom of the group. The other match between Burkina Faso and Sudan, both level on three points, will be crucial for qualification.

Less fortunate in the draw, the 2019 African champion, who finished first in their group, will face the second-placed team from Group D, Senegal, instead of one of the four best third-placed teams.

Gabon eliminated

With four points each after their epic draw on Sunday in Marrakech, Ivory Coast and Cameroon, the two "brother enemies" of African football, are in a very favorable position to qualify on the last day and have eliminated the first team, Gabon, beaten (3-2) by Mozambique.

Ivory Coast will face the Panthers, who have lost twice in their first two matches and are guaranteed to finish last in Group F.

Cameroon, in the midst of a revival, will face another test against Mozambique, who can still finish first in the group thanks to their victory over Gabon, their first ever in the Africa Cup.