FIFA is counting on unprecedented revenues for its first 48-team World Cup (June 11-July 19), while the benefits for participating nations and host cities are much more uncertain.

Triple the box office demand

In its latest projections, the football governing body is forecasting record revenues of $13 billion (€11.18 billion) over its 2023-2026 cycle, including $8.9 billion (€7.66 billion) for 2026 alone.

This last figure, which isolates the impact of the Men's World Cup, marks a 56% increase compared to the 2022 edition in Qatar, a 67% increase compared to the 2018 edition in Russia, and a doubling compared to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

The organization between the United States, Canada and Mexico "offers significant visibility to sponsors" and the increase from 32 to 48 teams broadens the audiences, but "the +World+ brand is so strong that its growth comes mainly from a long-term trend," Raffaele Poli, director of the Football Observatory at the CIES in Neuchâtel, told AFP.

From edition to edition, he explains, "FIFA has improved its techniques to monetize the event": by marketing packages in several regions, by pushing China into a showdown over broadcasting rights, or by adopting "dynamic pricing" for tickets despite the anger of supporters' organizations and legal proceedings initiated in Europe and the United States.

Thus, the increase from 64 to 104 matches is not enough to explain the surge in ticket sales, whose expected revenues (3 billion dollars) should more than triple compared to 2022. TV rights are expected to rise by 34%, to nearly 4 billion dollars, and partnerships by 21%.

Increased funding but higher costs

What to do with a cake of this size, less than a year before a decisive Congress for the head of world football Gianni Infantino, who will seek a new mandate on March 18, 2027 which could be his last?

Of the $3.7 billion that FIFA plans to spend on the World Cup, a quarter will go to participating national teams and clubs releasing their international players, with the tournament's overall prize money increased by 15% at the end of April to $871 million (compared to $440 million in Qatar).

Each participating team will be guaranteed a minimum of $12.5 million, which will peak at $50 million for the winning country, although there is no guarantee that this will compensate for significantly increased costs related to the geographical spread of the tournament as well as taxes levied in the United States or Canada, if the federations fail to negotiate an exemption.

"We will have to get through to the quarter-finals to reap any benefits," a source close to the football authorities told AFP.

Furthermore, FIFA will dedicate $1.7 billion in 2026 alone to its development program, a key electoral tool as it provides funding to each of the 211 member federations regardless of its size.

And what about the host cities?

"In this game of actors, those least well placed to negotiate advantageous terms are often the host cities," emphasizes Raffaele Poli, especially since the "indirect revenues promised to them, in terms of notoriety and long-term tourism development, are difficult to quantify."

Particularly unbalanced, the contracts signed by the 16 host cities reserve the bulk of the profits - down to parking fees - for FIFA, while the hosts pay for infrastructure and significant security costs.

In early May, the American Hotel Association (AHLA) warned of lower-than-expected bookings in many of the host cities, citing massive room cancellations blocked in advance by FIFA, visa restrictions, and an unfavorable geopolitical context.

Miami, which will host seven games, saw better-than-expected booking levels and anticipated one million visitors to the region, along with the creation of 9,000 jobs during what is usually its off-season. The New York-New Jersey Local Committee, which hosts eight games including the final, estimated the economic impact on the region at $3.3 billion in July 2025.