With less than three months to go before the presidential election scheduled for December 28, 2025, the Guinean political landscape is beginning to take shape. While several candidates have already been announced, the real heavyweights are still awaiting confirmation. Analysis points to an unbalanced duel, dominated by the transitional president.

General Mamadi Doumbouya: the hypothesis has become a near certainty

Despite the initial ban in the Transition Charter, the new Constitution of September 26, 2025 lifted this restriction, paving the way for a civilian candidacy of General Mamadi Doumbouya.

Although unofficial, his candidacy is widely anticipated, fueled by converging signals: mobilization of his base, intensification of presidential tours and persistent rumors within the National Movement for Development (MND).

If he is a candidate, his chances of victory in the first round appear high, notably thanks to:

An economic assessment deemed positive : growth at +6.5% (first quarter of 2025), relaunch of the Simandou project, and improvement of infrastructure.

Significant social reforms (health coverage, pension increases).

A decisive socio-political asset : community voting, historically favorable to the power in place.

In short, if Doumbouya makes his candidacy official, the presidential election could well be decided in the first round.

The UFDG at a crossroads

The UFDG, once its main rival, is going through a period of turbulence. Currently suspended, the party cannot field a candidate. Moreover, its longtime leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, is ineligible because he is not registered on the electoral list.

The name of Halimatou Dalein Diallo, his wife, is circulating as a potential substitute candidate. While she can mobilize the historic base, her room for maneuver would remain limited in the face of the state apparatus. Without its leader and without the suspension being lifted, the UFDG risks playing the role of arbiter rather than a contender.

Veterans: Losing Speed

The former political leaders—Lansana Kouyaté (PEDN), Dr. Ousmane Kaba (PADES), and Dr. Faya Millimono (BLD)—are struggling to attract a youth that is looking for change. After a decade of opposition without change, their political and financial resources are dwindling. If they participate, their role will likely be more symbolic than influential.

The major parties are absent

Alpha Condé's RPG Arc-en-ciel and Sidya Touré's UFR have announced that they will not be fielding a candidate. This strategic withdrawal, or one indicative of a weakening, leaves a political vacuum that the presidential camp is ready to exploit.

With 50 political parties and 16 independent candidates already declared, the presidential election promises to be crowded. However, regional sponsorship requirements and the high electoral deposit are expected to eliminate a large proportion of these candidates. Their political clout will remain marginal, even if they could fuel public debate.

An Election Decided in Advance?

Barring a major surprise or an unprecedented opposition alliance, the December 2025 election promises to be an unbalanced duel between a quasi-candidate Doumbouya benefiting from the state apparatus and a fragmented opposition, divided between strategic calculations and internal fragilities.

Perhaps the real question is no longer who will be the candidate, but rather who can truly compete with the powers that be.