« 2026 risque d’être plus dure que 2025 » : le sombre pronostic d’un économiste sur la nouvelle Loi de finances
In an interview with L'Observateur, economist Seydina Alioune Ndiaye warns of an unprecedented fiscal shock contained in the 2026 Initial Finance Law (LFI). According to him, the Senegalese government is walking a tightrope, with an increase in tax pressure of +3.9 points of GDP, 92.8% of which would be borne by households and businesses.
The objective of this strategy, the specialist analyzes, is to reduce the budget deficit from 12% of GDP in 2024 to 5.37% in 2026, then to 3% in 2027, in accordance with the WAEMU convergence criteria. To achieve this, tax revenues should increase by 23.5%, reaching 5,384 billion CFA francs, thanks in particular to new taxes on gambling, mobile money, salaries and imports.
However, he emphasizes, this policy carries serious economic and social risks. Households will see their purchasing power erode, while food inflation, already estimated at 36% over three years, could worsen. Companies, affected by the increase in the TAF (+56%) and payroll taxes (+32%), risk a drop in margins, a loss of competitiveness, and even relocation to other countries in the sub-region.
The source for the daily newspaper of the Future Media Group believes that the 2026 LFI reflects "narrow fiscal budgeting," risking stifling wealth creation in an economy where 90% of activities are informal. With public debt estimated at more than 130% of GDP and non-hydrocarbon growth limited to 2%, he fears a recession and social breakdown if this fiscal shock is poorly managed.
In conclusion, he calls on the government to focus on tax education, dialogue with the private sector, boosting investment, and active economic diplomacy to restore trust with partners, particularly the IMF. The economist also recommends increased monitoring of inflation and the establishment of social compensation mechanisms to avoid a major economic crisis in 2026.
Commentaires (21)
Qu Allah nous protège contre tout mal !
Leurs études sont cadrées sans perspective...
l'Université sénégalaise doit être inspectée et surtt des articles pertinent doivent être produits....
NB: Wade hérite d'une dette de 2000 milliards. Macky hérite d'une dette de 500 milliards. Diomaye hérite d'une dette de 16700 milliards. Wade a divisé la dette héritée de Diouf par 4. Macky a multiplié la dette hérité de Wade par 33.
"And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country " (20-01-1961).
Ils sont tout simplement nuls et égoïstes. Ils appauvrissent les sénégalais et se sucrent sur leur dos. Diomaye 11 milliards de fonds politiques par an soit 916 millions par mois.
Sonko 9 milliards de fonds politiques par an soit 750 millions par mois.
Ces gens là veulent que les sénegalais se sacrifient qu'ils s'enrichissent.
Non .... Jamais !!!
Seneweb, ne nettoie pas ce message
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