The EU-US trade agreement has been frozen by the European Parliament. Africa is already suffering the consequences of this trade war between giants.

The trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, negotiated in Turnberry, Scotland, in July 2025, has just been frozen by the European Parliament. The reasons: new tariff threats from Donald Trump and a US Supreme Court ruling that has reshaped the landscape. For Africa, this battle between economic giants is not just a distant spectacle. Its consequences are already being felt on exports, commodity prices, and even remittances from the diaspora.

A stillborn agreement?

Let's get back to the facts. In July 2025, the EU and the United States concluded an agreement in Turnberry. The principle was simple: Europe committed to buying $750 billion worth of American energy, and in exchange, Washington capped its tariffs on European products at 15%. The EU, for its part, eliminated tariffs on the majority of American goods.

But on February 20, 2026, the United States Supreme Court struck down some of the tariffs imposed by Trump in 2025, ruling that they were based on a weak legal foundation (the IEEPA law). Instead of backing down, Trump promptly announced new tariffs of 10 to 15% on all global imports. For the Europeans, this was the last straw. On February 23, the European Parliament froze the ratification of the agreement and canceled the scheduled vote.

European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič summed up Brussels' position in one sentence: "A deal is a deal." The EU is now considering activating its "anti-coercion instrument," a legal tool that allows it to retaliate with targeted trade restrictions. These include tariffs on US technology, limitations on public procurement, and barriers to services.

Africa in the crosshairs

One might think that this dispute only concerns Washington and Brussels. That would be a mistake. Africa is directly affected, and in several ways.

US tariffs are also hitting the continent. Trump's new tariffs aren't just targeting Europe. South Africa faces 30% tariffs on its mining and agricultural exports to the United States. Lesotho, whose textile industry depends on the American market, is subject to 50% tariffs. Madagascar is taxed at 48%. Thousands of jobs are threatened in these countries, and protests have already taken place in Maseru.

AGOA, an uncertain lifeline. The African Growth and Opportunity Act, which allowed 32 African countries to export duty-free to the United States, was set to expire in September 2025. Washington has reactivated it retroactively until December 2026, covering $8.23 billion in exports. But this one-year extension, with its conditions, is not reassuring anyone. South Africa (cars, precious metals, agriculture) and Nigeria (oil, energy) alone account for three-quarters of trade under AGOA.

Commodity prices are under pressure. When the world's two largest economies engage in a trade war, global markets tremble. Disruptions to trade routes, combined with volatile tariffs, are driving up the prices of oil, liquefied natural gas, and food. For African countries that are net importers of these products, particularly in West Africa, this poses a direct risk of further inflation. ECOWAS has also raised the alarm about food security in the region.

What if Europe were to retreat into itself?

This is a scenario that few people are discussing, but it deserves attention. If the EU takes a tougher stance against the United States and adopts protectionist measures in return, African exporters to Europe could suffer indirect consequences. The EU is Africa's largest trading partner. A European economic slowdown, a rise in the euro against the dollar, or stricter border controls would affect exports of cocoa, coffee, tropical fruits, and mineral products destined for the European market.

The Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the EU and several African blocs could also be renegotiated if Brussels revises its overall trade strategy. For West African countries that export to Europe, any modification of these agreements would have serious consequences.

China is playing its hand

While the West is tearing itself apart, Beijing is moving forward. On May 1, 2026, China will eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African countries. This measure, announced by Xi Jinping at the African Union summit, covers almost all tariff lines. Beijing is forgoing approximately $1.4 billion in customs revenue to open its market to African products: crude oil, cocoa, cashew nuts, and minerals.

The difference with Western arrangements is significant. The American AGOA is subject to political conditions. European EPAs require reciprocal concessions. The Chinese offer, however, is unilateral. No quid pro quo is demanded. For African capitals, the calculation is quickly made.

South Africa has already signed a bilateral agreement with China guaranteeing full tariff-free access. Other countries could follow, accelerating a trade shift that has been underway for several years.

What this means for the diaspora

Africans in the diaspora, both in Europe and the United States, are not spared. An economic slowdown in host countries often translates into pressure on jobs and incomes, which directly affects remittances to the continent. In 2024, these remittances amounted to more than $100 billion for sub-Saharan Africa, exceeding official development assistance and foreign direct investment combined.

If the trade war between the EU and the US drags on, if inflation starts to rise again in these economies, African families who depend on these remittances will feel the effects.

Africa has cards to play

The situation is not entirely bleak. Rivalry between major powers also presents opportunities. When Washington, Brussels, and Beijing vie for access to the continent's markets and resources, Africa gains bargaining power. However, African governments must know how to use it.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) takes on its full meaning in this context. Reducing dependence on external markets by developing intra-African trade has never been more relevant. Countries that diversify their trading partners and invest in the local processing of their raw materials will be best protected against storms emanating from Washington or Brussels.

The EU-US trade war is not a European or American problem. It is a global problem. And Africa, as always, will have to navigate intelligently between the interests of others in order to defend its own.