There are figures that don't just exist, they impose themselves. At the end of 2024, Senegal carried an estimated public debt of 23,666.8 billion CFA francs. A figure as weighty as silence, representing nearly 119% of the gross domestic product. It's no longer a hill, it's an accounting mountain, a financial landscape shaping the trajectory of an entire country.

The Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy report (2026-2028) paints a precise picture. Of this total, 68.3% originates from external sources, amounting to approximately 16,160.5 billion CFA francs. This debt is primarily denominated in foreign currency, contracted half with multilateral and bilateral institutions, and the other half on commercial markets. Approximately 18.3% of this external debt consists of Eurobonds, those international bonds that are a source of pride for states when they are issued, and their source of anxiety when they have to be repaid.

Domestic debt, meanwhile, amounts to 7,506.3 billion CFA francs, representing 31.7% of the total portfolio. It takes the form of three- or five-year Treasury bonds held by regional banks and investors. These issues, often touted as an instrument of financial sovereignty, nevertheless reveal a fragility: the average maturity is only 3.2 years. A short-term solution for a state that needs long-term stability.

The total outstanding debt consists of 34.5% concessional or semi-concessional loans, meaning loans on favorable terms. The remaining 65% is commercial financing. This means that Senegal is borrowing increasingly at market rates and less and less on the preferential terms that once ensured its stability. This shift is significant. It reflects both a recognition of the country's strength in the markets and an increased exposure to external shocks.

The vulnerabilities are well-known. Nearly 40% of the total portfolio is denominated in dollars, a volatile currency that can easily disrupt the balance of power. With every move by the US Federal Reserve, a part of the Senegalese budget is affected. The report also highlights that 20% of the debt is at a variable rate and that 30.4% of the total debt will need to be re-mortgaged within the year. In other words, nearly a third of the loans are sensitive to interest rate changes and currency fluctuations.

The weighted average cost of debt stands at 4.3%. This rate appears manageable, but it reflects the increase in short-term domestic financing. As the 2018 Eurobonds approach their maturity, new issues are multiplying on the regional market, often without payment deferrals. This strategy allows the country to stay on course in the short term, but it dangerously brings maturities closer together, as if each repayment opens the door to the next.

Between 2025 and 2028, tensions will mount. The report forecasts a peak in repayments as early as 2025, a direct consequence of the reconciliation of bank debt data carried out by the firm Forvis Mazars, following the Court of Auditors' report of February 2025. The following years will see the addition of payments related to the 2018 Eurobond and several regional bonds. A busy schedule, like a tightrope walker advancing on an ever-thinning wire.

Yet, behind these stark figures lies an intention. Debt is not a mistake, it is a strategy. It serves to finance roads, hospitals, schools, ports, and energy infrastructure. It reflects a commitment to investment, a bet on the future. The danger lies not in resorting to debt, but in its pace, its composition, its transparency, and its purpose.

The medium-term debt management strategy calls for a cautious and prudent approach. It advocates a better balance between concessional and commercial financing, active management of foreign exchange risks, and longer maturities. Senegal still possesses strong assets, a diversified economy, and recognized regional credibility. But for this mountain of figures to stop crushing national ambitions, it will be necessary to learn to manage the debt rather than simply be burdened by it.

Because every billion borrowed carries within it a promise. And if this promise is to be used for building, then the burden of debt will cease to be an inevitability and will once again become an instrument of progress. Provided, of course, that we never forget that a king, even one burdened with debt, remains sovereign only if he retains control of his kingdom.