Rebasage du PIB : Une opération technique et statistique « nécessaire », loin de toute manipulation politique
Economist and philosopher El Hadji Ibrahima Sall sought to demystify the rebasing of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a statistical practice often the subject of suspicions of manipulation. A guest on the program "Le Jury du Dimanche" (JDD) on November 30th, he stated that rebasing is simply "a good, mandatory statistical practice that allows for international comparisons and the classification of countries."
El Hadji Ibrahima Sall sought to remove any ambiguity: "Rebasing is neither a local invention nor a tool of economic propaganda. It is a process framed, controlled and accompanied by international institutions," notably the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the United Nations system.
He emphasizes that "Rebasing isn't something you can do just any old way." The IMF and the United Nations are very vigilant, because the goal is to compare nations on a level playing field. He points out that if the supplementary investigations aren't conducted properly, "the rebasing is simply rejected."
The case of Nigeria is often cited to illustrate the dramatic impact this operation can have. Rebasing restored a reality closer to the country's actual economic activity, resulting in a significant statistical jump in its GDP after years of static, incomplete, and underestimated data.
The economist, however, warns of the main pitfall: the confusion of comparisons. "When you rebase, you create a break in the time series. You can no longer directly compare year X to year Y."
It is therefore necessary to reprocess the old data to align it with the new baseline. Stating that GDP increased by 13% after rebasing may be true in absolute terms, but comparing this new data with that of four or five years ago, without methodological harmonization, is either an error or an unintentional manipulation.
Mr. Sall links this problem to a fundamental principle in accounting: the consistency of methods. "If you change the method, you must restate the past, otherwise you are comparing the incomparable."
He dismisses the idea of "fictitious wealth" created by political decision, assuring that this risk does not exist in the context of rebasing, precisely because this process is not left to the discretion of states without oversight.
Ultimately, rebasing appears as a normal, classic, almost commonplace technical tool in the life of a modern nation, provided that it is understood, explained, and accompanied by pedagogy.
Commentaires (5)
Ou était il quand les gens qu'il conseillait faisaient tous ces dégâts.
Nous ne croyons plus à certains intellectuels
Participer à la Discussion
Règles de la communauté :
💡 Astuce : Utilisez des emojis depuis votre téléphone ou le module emoji ci-dessous. Cliquez sur GIF pour ajouter un GIF animé. Collez un lien X/Twitter ou TikTok pour l'afficher automatiquement.