Pourquoi le monde entier ne fait plus d’enfants
Birth rates are collapsing in much of the world, in both rich and emerging countries. Beyond economic explanations, another factor is emerging: the profound transformation of ways people meet, form couples, and live socially.
In many countries around the world (France, Poland, Ghana, Australia, etc.), the decline coincided with the adoption of smartphones. APA-IMAGES VIA AFP
The observation is undeniable: in every country in the world, fewer and fewer children are born each year. In more than two-thirds of the 195 countries, the average number of children per woman has fallen below 2.1, according to the Financial Times. This figure was not chosen arbitrarily: it is the basis for ensuring demographic stability without immigration.
In Europe, France has one of the highest fertility rates… yet only 1.61 children per woman in 2024. This figure drops to 1.14 for Polish women and 1.10 for Spanish women. In South Korea, the UN predicted 350,000 births in 2023. The result: only 230,000. Where does this birth rate crisis come from, what Elon Musk calls “the greatest risk to civilization”?
The question is no longer solely economic. While the rapid decline primarily affected wealthy nations just a few years ago, developing countries are now also experiencing low birth rates. Mexico, for example, has a lower rate than the United States. The issue of desire is also proving fruitless: most young men and women still say they want two children. No, the birth crisis is more accurately described as… a crisis of the couple. More precisely, a decline in the number of couples.
A study by demographer Stephen Shaw shows that in the United States, the number of children per mother is stable or even increasing, but that the proportion of women having children has declined sharply over the past fifteen years. If marriage and cohabitation rates had remained constant, the country's fertility rate would be higher today. One of the primary reasons: housing.
According to the Financial Times, nearly half of the decline in fertility rates observed in several countries since the 1990s can be attributed to the decrease in homeownership rates and the increase in the number of young adults living with their parents. Owning one's own home often represents a first step towards a long-term commitment with a partner. Should we look to technology for the cause? The number of births fell first and more rapidly in regions that benefited earliest from high-speed mobile internet access.
The question of smartphones
In many countries around the world (France, Poland, Ghana, Australia, etc.), the decline coincided with the adoption of smartphones, as measured by Google searches for mobile applications. Of course, to quote Étienne Klein, just because there are frogs after the rain doesn't mean we have the right to say that it rained frogs.
But, as demographer Lyman Stone explains, “To meet the person you’re going to marry, you have to sift through a lot of people. If you go out less, it will take you much longer to find the right person, if you ever do.” He adds, “If you spend a lot of time socializing with your peers in the real world, your criteria [for a potential partner] are grounded in reality. If you spend your time on Instagram, your criteria are grounded in an artificial notion of normality.”
Among couples, sexual dysfunction is more frequent among young adults who are the most active users of social media, notes Finnish demographer Anna Rotkirch. How can this decline be addressed? Birth bonuses encourage couples to have children, but they don't solve the problem of the lack of a partner. The Financial Times suggests the issue is broader: a phenomenon of singleness, isolation, and declining well-being among young adults.
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