Classement Économies : Comment la Guinée a “arraché” au Sénégal sa deuxième place
Last July, the Senegalese Ministry of Finance announced that Senegal had begun its GDP rebasing exercise. But so far, there has been no news on the process. Meanwhile, Guinea, which quickly completed this exercise, is stealing the limelight. The country led by Colonel Doumbouya has taken Senegal's second place among the economies of French-speaking West Africa. Why?
Indeed, last June, Conakry completed the process of rebasing its GDP. This process had been launched in 2017 with the support of the African Economic Commission (ECA). To calculate its wealth, Guinea now uses the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA 2008), aligning with international statistical standards, reports Jeune Afrique.
As a result, "Guinea's new GDP is estimated at more than 37 billion euros, making the country the second largest economy in French-speaking West Africa, behind Côte d'Ivoire (86.54 billion euros in 2024) but ahead of Senegal (32.27 billion euros in 2024)", says JA. It specifies, however, that this second place should be recovered by Senegal which, as indicated above, has begun the process of rebasing its GDP.
But Guinea is playing its best cards right now. One is called Simandou. It's the world's largest iron ore mine, with an estimated 2.8 billion tons of high-quality iron ore, which will begin production towards the end of this year. A $15 billion project, or around 8.37 trillion CFA francs, which is expected to produce 120 million tons of iron per year.
S&P, which had downgraded Senegal's rating, gives Guinea a B+/B
And even, in its bulletin of September 18, 2025, reviewed by Seneweb, Standard and Poor's had given Guinea a sovereign rating of "B+/B stable outlook." The rating agency, which had downgraded Senegal's rating to "B- with a negative outlook," was more complimentary about Guinea. It explains the rating given to it by the acceleration of the reform dynamics in recent years and especially the realization of the Simandou project.
S&P forecasts “real GDP growth of 9.5% on average over the period 2026-2028, as the Simandou mine begins production.” Moreover, Guinea, which holds 25% of the world’s bauxite reserves, increased production to 145 million tonnes last year.
But Guinea also has vulnerabilities such as a heavy dependence on the mining sector, political instability, a low level of development, with significant needs in infrastructure and social resources.
For its part, the rebasing of Senegal's GDP should not be long in coming. The Ministry of Finance indicated on July 15 that the exercise "in preparation for some time, will provide a more accurate picture of the size of the Senegalese economy by adopting a scope aligned with its level of economic development."
Indeed, rebasing involves changing the reference year used to calculate GDP to better reflect the current structure of the economy. It allows for the inclusion of sectors that have experienced rapid growth in recent years. And by including these previously uncounted activities, the overall GDP figure often increases significantly. And when GDP increases, the debt-to-GDP ratio decreases, which can improve the country's financial image.
Commentaires (28)
*Grâce à une recette statistique, l’économie guinéenne a gonflé de 51,2 % en quelques heures. En effet, en juin dernier, Conakry a achevé le processus de rebasage de son PIB lancé en 2017 avec l’appui de la Commission économique africaine (CEA), pilotée à l’époque par l’économiste Carlos Lopes. Pour calculer sa richesse, la Guinée utilise désormais le Système de Comptabilité Nationale 2008 (SCN*
c'est une honte il est temps de se ressaisir pour augmenter notre niveau de développement sinon on risque d'être dépassé par beaucoup de pays en Afrique particulièrement l'ouest
Il est prêté à l’ancien Président français Jacques Chirac cette sentence : « Les emmerdes volent toujours en escadrille ! ». À ce stade, les autorités sénégalaises, Cheikh Diba en tête, pourraient bien lui emprunter la formule. En effet, à peine la revue Bloomberg annonçait hier un dérapage des obligations sénégalaises en dollars et en euros (eurobonds) — qui ont continué à perdre de la valeur par rapport à celles des autres pays africains — que l’on apprend que l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économique (OCDE), par le biais de son « Arrangement sur les taux des primes de risque minimums », a réévalué à la hausse le risque pays du Sénégal.
En plus la volonté de vouloir détruire les autres à ses conséquences. Nous avons besoin de cohésion nationale
Tu es un guinéen encagoulé. Rentrez chez vous
C'est très bien. Donc dès lundi les millions de guinéens qui vivent au Sénégal vont rentrer comme ils sont plus riches que nous maintenant. Ça kay c'est une très bonne nouvelle.
Thiey la presse kuluna ndeysane elle se fatigue pour rien.
Mais ce qui est curieux c’est que la RDC, pays très vaste et potentiellement peut être le plus riche d’Afrique y figure
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