Dette du Sénégal : Le FMI face à une soutenabilité de plus en plus contestée
Senegal is experiencing a debt crisis. The country is forced to borrow almost every month to meet its repayments, finance its current expenses, and maintain the normal functioning of the state. This situation, combined with several downgrades of its sovereign credit rating, has led to a dramatic increase in the cost of borrowing on international markets.
“On Senegalese Eurobonds, rates have risen from around 4% to over 12% in just a few years. This development reflects the loss of investor confidence and places the country in what international finance calls a debt distress,” according to Professor Abdoulaye Ndiaye, economist at New York University, guest on “Jury du dimanche” on iRadio.
According to him, "officially, the IMF indicates that it has not yet finalized its analysis of the sustainability of Senegal's debt. A diplomatic formula which, in the language of international financial institutions, means that it is not able to confirm that the debt is sustainable at this stage."
This caution, he said, contrasts with the position of the Senegalese authorities, who continue to assert that the debt trajectory remains under control. But on the financial markets, the verdict seems to have already been delivered. The current prices of Senegalese Eurobonds, particularly low for short-term maturities, reflect a clear anticipation: investors are factoring in the possibility of debt restructuring, which would entail losses for creditors.
"When short-term eurobonds are trading at abnormally low prices, it means that the market expects a swap of securities or a partial default," explains the economist.
Two options, two costs
Faced with this situation, Senegal has two options, according to the expert. The first, already pursued for over a year, consists of continuing to roll over the debt, primarily on the WAEMU regional market. This strategy allows Senegal to meet immediate obligations, but at a high price: interest rates higher than concessional financing and increasing exposure of regional banks to Senegalese sovereign debt. This option has obvious limitations.
In the long term, it increases interest payments, already close to 5% on average and set to rise further, and poses a risk to regional financial stability. The second option is more politically sensitive: undertaking an orderly debt restructuring within the framework of the G20's common mechanism. This path involves complex negotiations with all multilateral and bilateral creditors (notably China and France), as well as holders of Eurobonds.
"While the cost is high in the short term, particularly in terms of access to financial markets, international experience shows that a well-conducted restructuring can allow for a healthier economic restart," explains Professor Ndiaye.
Sustainability and viability: a key debate
At the heart of discussions with the IMF are two often confused concepts: "Debt sustainability and viability."
"Sustainability refers to a state's ability to meet its obligations without permanently destabilizing its budget. Viability, on the other hand, is a long-term consideration: does the current trajectory allow for stabilizing, or even reducing, the debt burden in the economy?"
In the case of Senegal, several vulnerabilities are apparent. Exports remain limited, reducing external leverage. The fiscal consolidation planned in the finance law relies heavily on revenue forecasts considered very ambitious, without any significant reduction in spending.
For the IMF, these factors make the trajectory uncertain. For the authorities, they remain compatible with a gradual adjustment. Between the two, the markets have chosen their side.
A crisis that goes beyond Senegal
The situation in Senegal also raises a regional issue. As a member of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), Senegal benefits from a shared monetary framework, which has so far prevented an immediate inflationary or banking crisis. But this solidarity has its limits. A poorly calibrated restructuring of regional debt could weaken banks and bring back memories of the Greek crisis within the Eurozone.
Hence the call from several economists to strengthen mechanisms of financial discipline and solidarity at the regional level. "Long perceived as an admission of failure, debt restructuring is no longer a source of shame," the authors of the Ndiaye-Kessler report remind us. "In a global context marked by the proliferation of sovereign debt crises, it has become one tool among others for managing macroeconomic shocks," explains Professor Ndiaye.
For Senegal, he further emphasizes, "the real issue is therefore not whether to act, but when and how. Because postponing decisions could transform a manageable crisis into a lasting constraint, weighing on the economy and future generations."
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