Illustration économie Guinée-Sénégal
While Senegal faces credit rating downgrades, the Republic of Guinea is emerging as a regional standout in fiscal stability. S&P Global Ratings has upgraded the country's outlook from 'stable' to 'positive.' The agency also affirmed Guinea's long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings at 'B+/B,' indicating elevated credit risk but acknowledging the country's current capacity to meet its financial obligations.
"The positive outlook reflects Guinea's rapidly increasing foreign exchange reserves, which provide additional buffers in a volatile macroeconomic environment, rising non-mining public revenues, a strong reform momentum, and solid economic growth prospects," S&P Global Ratings stated in a bulletin reviewed by Seneweb.
Guinea's foreign exchange reserves grew significantly last year, reaching over $4.1 billion, compared to $1.5 billion in 2024. This accumulation "reflects the strong performance of the mining sector and significant foreign direct investment (FDI) flows related to the Simandou project," S&P noted.
The agency stated that Guinea's economic growth prospects remain highly favorable, primarily due to increased mining output. Growth is projected to average 9.75% from 2026 to 2029. These factors are complemented by a 46% increase in public revenues expected in 2025 and the effects of GDP recalibration.
S&P indicated it could raise Guinea's rating further. This would depend on the country reducing its external imbalances faster than anticipated and maintaining its reform momentum to ensure the mining boom benefits the broader economy. "Better fiscal performance could also lead to a likely rating improvement," S&P Global Ratings added.
However, Guinea's trajectory isn't without challenges. The country suffers from excessive dependence on the mining sector, which could increase long-term vulnerabilities, the rating agency warned. It also highlighted that fluctuations in international prices and global demand could pressure mining performance and heighten economic volatility.
In November, Senegal saw its long-term credit rating downgraded to 'CCC+.' This rating reflects very high vulnerability and a strong dependence on favorable conditions, due to the "country's precarious debt situation." While Guinea enjoys a positive outlook, Senegal "has been placed under surveillance" by S&P Global Ratings—a far less favorable position than its Guinean neighbor.
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